Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.

17. jan.. 2021
5 821 134 Ganger

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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of NOtown centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
FNAF, The FINAL Timeline ►►
FNAF, The Monster We MISSED! ►►
FNAF This Theory Changes Everything ►
FNAF, You Were Meant To Lose ►
FNAF 6, No More Secrets ►
Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman

  • I wasted 23 minutes of my break watching this I recommend you watch Karl Jobst Video than wasting time here

    Hi there I am MarkHi there I am MarkTime siden
  • I know I’m late but I’m learning this in school 10 7 is more likely 100/60 is only 10/6 take away one 0.

    Dion HallDion HallTime siden
  • matpat, it's pronounced lay-tech. Strange but true

    99cows9999cows993 timer siden
  • Indifferent and being obvious huh. It's a good choice to avoid the majority of the fanbase who don't understand. But it's clearly obvious.

    Barniclez GGBarniclez GG3 timer siden
  • did dream cheat his speed runs? matpat: Idk

    Bryce The ManBryce The Man4 timer siden

    Fionnuala GFionnuala G7 timer siden
  • My man MatPat literally played the lawyer card defending Dream But for real I think he didn’t cheat but the cause for the suspicion makes perfect sense

    The Parrish ShowThe Parrish Show8 timer siden
  • What waste of peoples time, dislike

    Connor FernandesConnor Fernandes8 timer siden
    • cry about it

      soupinfested guysoupinfested guy4 timer siden
  • Man, dream should have better played lotto with that luck

    Paul CullmannPaul Cullmann10 timer siden
  • who is really this invested in a minecraft speed run, either way someone was going to beat it? its really not that serious

    Sa'Nyia ShermanSa'Nyia Sherman15 timer siden
  • LateX is actually pronounced Latech

    SatanSatanDag siden
  • I walked away from this more confused than before

    Dewie!Dewie!Dag siden
  • I think you described the whole Minecraft speedrun community pretty well. What's the point when you can do everything perfectly only to get screwed by RNG? What's the point when you can do 7 speed runs and never get a time about 23 minutes but person who just got into the speed running community can get a time of 14 minutes on their first try? As someone who constantly experiences bad RNG at abnormally high rates in every game I play, I cant imagine why there wouldnt be someone out there with higher than average good RNG. The Critical Roll community can certainly back me up on the claim that sometimes people seem to either be blessed or cursed by RNJesus. The thing with probability is that that it can either be awesome like with Dream, or it can be awful like rolling a die 1000 times and only getting the number you are looking for 3 times. Statisticly speaking, you should be getting your desired number fare more often. I could go on all day about how statistics do not work the way people who talk about them think they work. It is not an all encompassing algorithm and it can just flat out throw the most wild curve ball you've ever seen. So thank you for going in depth about how there can be outliers of a statistic. Not enough statistical analysts seem to remember that.

    Adam LivesayAdam LivesayDag siden
  • "Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun?" "To answer that, we need to talk about parallel universes."

    AnotherGuyOnTheInternetAnotherGuyOnTheInternetDag siden
  • He cheated that’s fact

    Placeholder 123Placeholder 123Dag siden
  • Sooooo many people saying 'Boo, Mattpat is biased towards Dream', 'Boo, Mattpat didn't give a conclusive answer', and 'Boo, clickbait title'. First of all, NOtown is often driven by clickbait. Chill. Second of all, Mattpat reached a conclusion, but since he didn't have it set up in big glowing, underlined, highlighted words, a vast majority seem to see this as him not reaching a conclusion. A large chunk of this video is basically him saying 'There's way too much at play and way too many assumptions for me to come to a definitive conclusion, and here's why''. This also partially covers the Dream bias thing. Speaking of which... Third of all and lastly, Mattpat is just keeping a business relationship open. A lot of NOtownrs would if they had a similar situation with a large and growing NOtownr and streamer.

    Corey CookCorey CookDag siden
  • Just know that there is no such thing as true randomness. If you flip a coin there are still factors like how hard you flip it. Rng from computers are made from algorithms. Which can always be manipulated if you can decide the algorithm.

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  • "Did Dream cheat?" MatPat: So he sat on a toilet actually and proceeded to call his dad, he climbed onto Mt. Everest.

    Johnny CripplestarJohnny CripplestarDag siden
  • People can say whatever they want but there is one thing no one can deny. Not a single thing in this universe is impossible. No matter what there's always a chance it'll happen. Yes maybe Dreams drop rates were higher than usual, but how is that his fault. No one can say for certain if he cheated or not. He could've gotten 100 pearls in 100 trades and that's still technically something that can happen. In the end no statistics can help which is why we weren't given a straight answer. Unless Dream comes clean about cheating or someone else finds indisputable proof of him cheating (which don't involve random numbers and cherry-picking data) we don't have a right to say he did.

    Henrieta BHenrieta BDag siden
    • @Henrieta B the chances of him getting that lucky legitimately are approx 1/7.5trillion, thats 0.0...% chance of his run being legit. We can be as certain he cheated as we can of pretty much anything else in our lives. Can I no longer call my mum and dad my parents because there is a 1/10,000 chance I'm adopted and wasnt informed? If I told you I wrote a pullitzer prize winnng novel by mashing my hand on a keyboard randomly would you beleve me? Would you think "well theres a chance so I guess we cant know for sure? or would you correctly deduce I'd actually just typed it out? Why should Dream be any different, we make statements of certainty about things that are statistically far more likely to be false every single day. Regarding the rest of your argument, there are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 possible seeds in minecraft so I guess every run is logically insanely lucky right? Even the ones where the seed is terrible for running and the person gets terrible drops you've still say that was a lucky run? Prior knowleds andf intent is an essential factor in probability. If I threw a dart out of a plane and it hit a bullseye and you threw a dart out and it landed in the middle of a field, while the probability of the darts landing in those exact locations is the same my throw would have been more lucky because the target was to hit the bullseye. In Dreams case the target is to get ender pearls and blaze rods and he is the getting that bullseye. Going back to the chance of having generated any world from a seed the difference is that if it werent for the seed you got it would have just been a different one. If it werent for you being born it would have been a different child etc. Surely we can agree that getting a seed with close by stronghold and a 12 eye portal is lucker than a world with a far away fortress, 0 eye portal, no nearby lava pools, villages or useful structures and, bad bastion gold even though the chances of getting those individual seeds is the same?

      morbideddiemorbideddie15 timer siden
    • @Henrieta B The issue here though is that he had this luck not once, not twice, but consistently over 6 streams, almost totaling close to ~200 runs. At this point it's pretty obvious something is up, because the coding in MC doesn't just mess up like that over and over that many times in a row. RNG is random, but it's still a coded function within the game, and the coding doesn't support what Dream got. A good example is the NOtownr Karl Jobst, who decided to run millions of simulations on MC's default settings to try to replicate Dream's luck, and there were none that came even a fraction of the way close to the luck Dream was getting. It's pretty safe to assume he modded his game behind the scenes.

      LeonardLeonard22 timer siden
    • @morbideddie Either way that doesn't really change anything l said. I'm not trying to prove that Dream didn't cheat. All l'm saying is that no one has proof of him cheating. Speculations is not proof. Random numbers is not proof. Chances are such unpredictable things. I mean the odds of either of us being born were 1 in 400 trillion. Chances of both of us surviving to our age is obviously pretty high but still worth considering. Chances of you seeing my comment were extremely low, chances of me even writing a comment were even lower. Literally the chances of us having this conversation at this exact moment are so astronomically low they would be deemed impossible by any sane person. Yet here we are. Having a civil discussion about this like it's nothing.

      Henrieta BHenrieta BDag siden
    • @Henrieta B it’s mentioned in both geosquares video and paper and dreams paper agrees with the number. The 1/7.5trillion number is the is the chance of anyone in the MC speedrunning community ever getting that lucky.

      morbideddiemorbideddieDag siden
    • @morbideddie Also where did you even get that number from? I don't remember anyone mentioning 1 in 20 sextilion chances

      Henrieta BHenrieta BDag siden
  • Of course not

    Hien Vu DiuHien Vu DiuDag siden
  • “What’s my answer? Today’s video is sponsored by Skillshare.”

    Dougal FarquharsonDougal FarquharsonDag siden
  • 100 times 60+ heads because of the law of large numbers when u do someting 10times its pritty random but as oftener as you do it as closer the "relative Häufigkeit" gets to the "theoretische wahrscheinlichkeit" ( im german so i learned mathe in german and i dont know the english words)

    Dra giDra giDag siden
  • HAHA Mr.beast in the backround: carrying like 40 switches and 33 gaming computers!

    ToymationToymationDag siden
  • Bruh

    BUG brothersBUG brothersDag siden
  • 0:11 Mr beast?

    -Muffin--Muffin-Dag siden
  • ._.

    fatma alyammahifatma alyammahiDag siden
  • Props for bringing up LaTeX. I remember all those nights using it for my undergraduate thesis 😂 and we pronounce it as "la-tek" 😁

    Jerric AliermoJerric AliermoDag siden
  • As a student in a stem major im happy to have gotten that latex reference at 2:03

    LinExLinExDag siden
  • so to resume, your solution is just to erase speedrunning instead of actually presenting any solution

    FantasmaNaranjaFantasmaNaranjaDag siden
  • Freddy plush

    Connor Lenton-willsConnor Lenton-willsDag siden
  • I vote matpat for theorist president

    3wayda_menace3wayda_menaceDag siden
  • The TRUE answer, *n o*

    Gabe WyattGabe Wyatt2 dager siden

    Red Fire RedRed Fire Red2 dager siden
  • say it with me NOICE

    Imran MeerImran Meer2 dager siden
  • 7

    richard reynarichard reyna2 dager siden
  • Most peaceful game, huh... *Screams in 2b2t*

    Alex SchmidAlex Schmid2 dager siden
  • It’s more likely to get head 60 times when flipping a coin 100 times than getting heads 7 out of 10 times Uh oh I got it wrong

    A_guyA_guy2 dager siden
  • 60+ id say

    BrosiBrosi2 dager siden
  • Of Dream's only "scandal" is "faking a speed run" I'd say he's not that bad

    PurpleZombiePurpleZombie2 dager siden
    • Yeah the fact that he basically tried to rob people who actually put the time and effort to speedrun the game from the recognition they deserve and the fact that he still has not apologized for it while effectively hiding behind his stans is nothing big I agree...

      TerminasitorTerminasitor2 dager siden
  • I unsubbed when I realized all this channel did was shill out for FNAF vids. Then I saw him always complaining to his girlfriend on stream over singleplayer videogames w nonstop imposing on her. Then I saw the news about big crybaby mattpat got his booboo feelings hurt when no one liked him being labeled as the "face of gaming" while meeting the pope. Now he's a big baby that had his favowite minecwaft stweamew bring hawassed and won't take a side. Matt, you are a despicable human being. A giant manchild that preys kids for money especially with this video. Deep down, I want you to know that your girlfriend *or any girl you'll ever be with* are only with you for your money; but you know they'll never admit it, that they don't like your shrill voice or your giant manchild attitude

    Bobobo-bo Bo-boboBobobo-bo Bo-bobo2 dager siden
    • o o f

      LeonardLeonard22 timer siden
  • 6/10 is more likely

    Alex HirschAlex Hirsch2 dager siden
  • Next can you talk about the Dungeons and spawners

    Fried ChickenFried Chicken2 dager siden

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  • I expected better from you. I want my 22 minutes back, didn't expect you to provide a half assed inconclusive Chewbacca defense.

    Ace2464Ace24642 dager siden
  • 7+

    Sejr Vrislau Riis CarlssonSejr Vrislau Riis Carlsson2 dager siden
  • “Nah you can increase your chance in the lottery, it’s a luck game so it won’t matter”

    PestilencePestilence2 dager siden
  • Every minecraft speedrunner: finishes the speedrun in about 30 or less minutes Me: beats the game in 24 hours cuz im not good at speedruns and i dont know how to make anything good and i dont know how to make potions or make enchantment books or get enchantment books

    Emanuel ZiskaEmanuel Ziska2 dager siden
  • Everyone came for a definite answer but forgot what channel this is to begin with. 😂

    TheLonelyTrippersClubTheLonelyTrippersClub2 dager siden
  • What if mat joined dream smp

    Mr_quackMr_quack2 dager siden
    • Lol, that will be crazy

      Fury OfTheGameFury OfTheGame2 dager siden
  • With bastion tech pig trades are reliable and quick, so the end part kind of falls flat. You also kind of gloss over how the 1-in-10 million chance that a thousand speed runners running for years would hit dreams luck lol. Seems like you didn't want to outright say he cheated

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  • wow, very cool !

    Do Viet AnhDo Viet Anh2 dager siden
  • I still don’t get why so many people are mad at him. He didn’t say if Dream did or didn’t cheat, he was just saying his point of view on the outer situation. If you came here to see a “He cheated” or “He didn’t cheat” you’ve probably already seen multiple videos on the matter and already have a solid opinion. Just let MatPat voice his ACTUAL opinion instead of another insignificant answer that you have already heard multiple times.

    MasterMelonXMasterMelonX2 dager siden
    • he posted this vid for money. you could literally easily deduce from the first few mins of watching this.

      LoliLickerLoliLicker2 dager siden
  • 50 60 is bs cuz chances are it’s never gonna be 50 50

    Kaden DoernerKaden Doerner3 dager siden
  • 7

    Andrew GalindoAndrew Galindo3 dager siden
  • 0:55 *And thats why the reason your grandfather never wants to do anything related to science..*

    Ken KanekiKen Kaneki3 dager siden
  • Everyone says matpat didn't give answers. He did, he's just being unbiased and analytical. After all, no one knows the truth except for Dream. We can't just judge someone based on pure speculation. The rng evidence is nowhere close to be a solid proof. The 1.16 world record is heavily rng involved as well, indeed lots of them also look too lucky to me, but of course people love to chose to attack a celebrity instead. That being said, just stop involve yourself into stupid drama and controversies. All these accusations and criticisms are dumb.

    A FOA FO3 dager siden
    • @LoliLicker yeah yeah I know, loli licker, my man morbideddie has told me that and I don't need others to remind me the same thing again.

      A FOA FO2 dager siden
    • @A FO you get 1 in 7.5 trillion odds after correcting the biases wtf r u on about

      LoliLickerLoliLicker2 dager siden
    • @A FO I agree that luck dependent speedruns and not ideal and it should come down to skill but if Dream also didn’t like that aspect he could have run a different game or the set seed category. He chose to run random seed in a luck dependent game so it’s really on him. Alternately there are loads of speed running live events and races he could take part in if he doesn’t want to endlessly grind runs. Matpat offered this a solution but it already exists so that’s another option.

      morbideddiemorbideddie2 dager siden
    • @morbideddie If you'll allow a slight digression i may ask, imagine getting a speedrunning world record, all you had to do is being lucky and it no longer requires hard practices and speedrunning skills as before though. How ridiculous and ironic.

      A FOA FO2 dager siden
    • Well, I gotta admit that I'm not smart enough to digest and understand all the information you gave me, and I'm not bothered to check it, but i guess he cheated. Although the drama doesn't matter anymore, but still, good job on that. That's truly really rewardable. ╮(・o・)╭ Move on.

      A FOA FO2 dager siden
  • So.... am I one of the only people that actually enjoyed this video? Like, I feel like he has a point about the lottery nature of the newest Minecraft Update and the Barter System specifically. (Though I've heard that people have actually found a way to control it now?). As well as how different assumptions and different decisions made in regards to data points of statistical analysis can greatly change the numbers involved? Looking at the comments, it sure feels that way.

    dolphinsniperdolphinsniper3 dager siden
  • No he did not fake it

    Bradyn RexBradyn Rex3 dager siden
  • Can we all agree that the dislikes are from Dream stans?

    GooseSauseGooseSause3 dager siden
  • “Ive probably put more lore into Minecraft than Mojang has” Well yes, but actually yes

    TheLuchaKabutoTheLuchaKabuto3 dager siden
  • Monke

    No Sleep JonesNo Sleep Jones3 dager siden
  • I need my 23:30 minutes back please

    BruhBruh3 dager siden
  • You missed an opportunity to use the dream speed run music for this video.

    Yisrael BrowneYisrael Browne3 dager siden
  • "Man, I want to capitalize on the Dream drama, but jeez, I don't want to offend my friend and source of stream revenue Dream, so I'll dance around the issue for twenty minutes and then condemn speedrunning in general without giving a definitive statement." You're a transparent hypocrite, MatPat. I just hope that people stop seeing *through* you, and starting seeing *into* you.

    Varg KelanVarg Kelan3 dager siden
  • I trust Dream yes he cheated but i think he so good a Man (I'm not a side account of Dream) :)

    Gapple ManGapple Man3 dager siden
  • Plenty of speedrun games feature randomness at a high level, whether it stems from physics interactions, AI behaviors or something else. As a result, speedrunners spend ridiculous amounts of time running the level over and over, not necessarily to improve their skill, but simply to get that lucky constellation of circumstances. Since speedrunners at the top level all have roughly the same skill, the one that gets lucky ON TOP OF THAT will be the one with the record, forcing all players to grind for that bit of luck. This applies to Minecraft as well. The Piglin bartering might seem like just a slot machine, but there are other factors like where the End Portal spawns or where you come up when coming back from the Nether, etc. Yes, you can mitigate these to some degree with player skill, but if the world record is a similarly skilled player AND they get lucky (because they've been trying over and over), they're going to get a better time.

    MarconiusMarconius3 dager siden
  • I saw mr beast in the background lol

    fasthi300fasthi3003 dager siden
  • (I got the Latex ref, good times.)

    Bastien ClarkeBastien Clarke4 dager siden
  • I think dream cheated his speedrun

    Moon WorxMoon Worx4 dager siden
  • Short answer: Yes

    PerroPerro4 dager siden
  • 7

    Muffin ThugMuffin Thug4 dager siden
  • Dream became famous over night. He made a couple videos, and then boom. 20 million subscribers in a year and a half. It's not like cheating is gonna do anything to his ad revenue.

    DJBatmanGoldDJBatmanGold4 dager siden
  • Me beast😂😂😂😂

    Lucid Son4rLucid Son4r4 dager siden
  • animemusic

    Hsueh-Chen wuHsueh-Chen wu4 dager siden
  • Pov: your a dream fan

    Diamond TDDDylanDiamond TDDDylan4 dager siden
  • Dreams about teeth if you do he'd be on top of the leaderboard

    Selina HouslaySelina Houslay4 dager siden
    • Wtf are you trying to say? I didn't understand anything you said.

      Just_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfireJust_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire4 dager siden
  • 1:40 Is that a starcraft broodwar marine assultrifle?

    Arszlan Kendi-SzakacsArszlan Kendi-Szakacs4 dager siden

      Just_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfireJust_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire4 dager siden
  • Matpat knows more math than many of those "math professors" that gave their answer

    SITO11MAXISITO11MAXI4 dager siden
    • @SITO11MAXI The math has been done though, and has already taken into account these variants. Multiple accredited mathematicians did the math and all came to the same conclusion that he cheated. I recommend you watch these vids, because they explain all of this way better than Mat did, and actually gave an in-depth analysis to the math.

      LeonardLeonard3 dager siden
    • @Leonard but the math can't be actually done because of all the variants

      SITO11MAXISITO11MAXI3 dager siden
    • There were so many other mathematicians that did such better analysis than this video. All Mat did was throw a few theories up; he didn't even show any math. Meanwhile, these other guys actually do the math and explain it to you. One even ran simulations to try to replicate the scenario. Mat's vid is really so lackluster.

      LeonardLeonard3 dager siden
  • Wtf happened in this video

    JauJauJauJau5 dager siden
  • Yes, Dream cheated.

    ljummingenljummingen5 dager siden
  • Matpat I have been watching you since the start of the FNAF theories it would be a DREAM if you could respond.

    PASTAMAN 87PASTAMAN 875 dager siden
  • Ооо повезло повезло

    Томат ОгородовТомат Огородов5 dager siden
  • Are you Theodd1sout

    Julie DombroskiJulie Dombroski5 dager siden
  • trash

    Rafael BeldaRafael Belda5 dager siden
    • @Sun-Moon-Dragon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

      Rafael BeldaRafael Belda4 dager siden
    • nobody cares

      Sun-Moon-DragonSun-Moon-Dragon4 dager siden
  • I mean showing his work kinda means he’s honest? I’m really not sure and am super late to that thing but I’m neutral

    xX夜神月Vøid GalaxyXxxX夜神月Vøid GalaxyXx5 dager siden
  • Honestly, you dont seem to understand speedruns. Its a hobby for most. They do it for fun. They like the luck. You pass it off as the lottery, but I could get the perfect seed and get last place.

    GrievousGrievous5 dager siden
  • For those who want the answer: He doesn’t give a answer

    ReelVonicReelVonic5 dager siden
    • He did give an answer. It just wasn’t “He cheated” or “He didn’t cheat”.

      MasterMelonXMasterMelonX2 dager siden
    • FOr htose who want the answer he cheated

      Just_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfireJust_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire4 dager siden
    • I could of just read the top comment but ok

      GrievousGrievous5 dager siden
  • 0:14 "today I am gonna but EVERYTHING in a store including MatPat and whoever this guy

    Cookies RevolutionCookies Revolution5 dager siden
  • MatPat should have known from Undertale not to undertake such a controversial topic. The reason there's a controversy is because the gray area is shunted into a society that only sees things in black and white. He couldn't give an answer because there is none. Luck is in so many shades of gray the novel was split into 8 sequels, it is indifferent. There is no "Dream did or did not cheat." We will never know unless he comes clean, but if he is telling the truth and he did not, people still won't believe him because his response will remain the exact same as it is now, and see where the current answer got him.

    BittersweetBittersweet5 dager siden
  • so did mattpat do the usual "The subject has been resolved already, and i will contribute nothing to it but will make a 20 video out of it to get add revenue"?

    BronyGamerBronyGamer5 dager siden
  • This video really doesn't get enough flak.

    Marsted RMarsted R6 dager siden
  • Ok but matpat where is the answer? I cant help but feel he may not have cheated but u promised an answer and u didnt give one... Tf

    Revolutionary Cinema ProductionsRevolutionary Cinema Productions6 dager siden
  • Stop this conclusion things, I give you an idea to know wether this guy is cheating or not. JUST WATCH THEM PERSONALY

    Kobe Noah RochaKobe Noah Rocha6 dager siden
  • In the Super Mario tennis game. It is sibling rivalry.

    lucky 81lucky 816 dager siden
  • I just understand the binomial distribution stuff but the other stuff is harder

    ꧁Iron III oxide꧂꧁Iron III oxide꧂6 dager siden
  • 0:52 Only people who are dumb feel the pain💀🤚

    S u g a r C h e r r iS u g a r C h e r r i6 dager siden
  • Yes he cheated, it is statistically impossible for his runs to happen. You can still watch Dream, it’s not like all he does is speed runs

    NotToo StraightNotToo Straight6 dager siden
  • Wow, this is such a great first impression on a channel! Nonsensical rambling, almost zero actual research or explanation on the situation and on top of that, you do your best to make a pro dream video while denying it's a pro dream video. At least be a man and admit it.

    Kleber SousaKleber Sousa6 dager siden
  • "If you've ever tried to use word... It DoN't WoRk!" Me: "Uhhh? Insert tab then symbol?"

    Octavia OsbornOctavia Osborn6 dager siden
  • Dream hat nicht geschummelt nicht

    Richard RungeRichard Runge6 dager siden